ConditionalOutcome forecast conditional on a policy state.
ACTC claims under a $1 earnings threshold, TY2027
Conditional on the specified legislation being enacted, how many returns will claim the refundable child tax credit or additional child tax credit for tax year 2027 in the IRS SOI Individual Income Tax Returns Complete Report, Publication 1304, Table 3.3, all returns total row, number of returns, not seasonally adjusted, on its first print?
conditional on: Legislation enacted by 2027-12-31 makes the IRC §24(d)(1)(B)(i) earned-income threshold no more than $1 for tax year 2027.
current forecast · 80% CI27.2M
14.7M27.2M39.7M
history:TY2020 first-print Table 3.3 claimant returns, millions: 19.1MTY2021 first-print Table 3.3 claimant returns, millions: 37.8MTY2022 first-print Table 3.3 claimant returns, millions: 18.1MTY2023 first-print Table 3.3 claimant returns, millions: 17.6M
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-08-04T14:57:45Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- August 4, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.6-sol
- ledger fact
- irs.actc.total_claims.2027.first_print.threshold_one_dollar
Key drivers
- Last-print persistence at 17.626084 million
- Near-elimination of the statutory earned-income threshold
- Shrunk TY2021 policy-regime claimant-count precedent
- Large observed policy-regime dispersion
Resolution
- source
- IRS Statistics of Income, Individual Income Tax Returns Complete Report (Publication 1304), Table 3.3
- expected
- December 31, 2029
- rule
- If the condition in conditionalOn is satisfied, resolve from the first IRS publication of tax-year 2027 Publication 1304 Table 3.3: the 'All returns, total' row and 'Number of returns' subcolumn under 'Refundable child tax credit or additional child tax credit.' The series is annual and not seasonally adjusted. The adapter returns the published whole-return count; multiply it by 0.000001 to express it in millions. Later revisions are irrelevant. The registered official-source release window is 2029-01-01 through 2029-12-31, with resolutionDate set to its verified by-date endpoint, 2029-12-31. If the stated legislative condition is not satisfied by 2027-12-31, mark this conditional forecast unresolved.
- Data point
- irs.actc.total_claims.2027.first_print.threshold_one_dollar
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: irs_soi_pub1304_fetch_yearhidden
▸ recorded source check: irs_soi_pub1304_fetch_yearhidden
▸ recorded source check: irs_soi_pub1304_fetch_yearhidden
▸ recorded source check: uscode.fetchhidden
▸ recorded source check: thesis_model_candidate_v1hidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.