Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US personal current taxes, June 2026
What will BEA report as June 2026 personal current taxes, monthly seasonally adjusted annual rate, in the first print?
current forecast · 80% CI$3,277.2B
$3,266.8B$3,277.2B$3,287.6B
history:January 2026: $3,214.7BFebruary 2026: $3,215.3BMarch 2026: $3,229.5BApril 2026: $3,247.9BMay 2026: $3,264.7B
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-15T19:33:28Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 15, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.6-sol
- ledger fact
- bea.personal_current_taxes.level.june_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- recent monthly tax-receipt momentum
- continued nominal income and wage growth
- withholding and estimated-payment noise
- first-print measurement uncertainty
Resolution
- source
- Registered ALFRED mirror of BEA Personal Income and Outlays, Table 1
- expected
- July 29, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the June 2026 first-published value for BEA personal current taxes series W055RC1, monthly seasonally adjusted annual rate, billions of dollars, rounded to one decimal, using the registered source binding and ignoring subsequent revisions. The registered ALFRED vintage predates the June observation and BEA schedules the first print for July 30, so the binding and registered July 29 resolution date require target-contract review; this forecast remains tied to the registered slug, dataPointId, URL, and date.
- Data point
- bea.personal_current_taxes.level.june_2026.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.