Engrossed in House · passed House May 22, 2025
One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1, House-engrossed text)
Live forecasts on this bill's candidate series — unconditional
US DoD prime award obligations FY2026
What will USAspending API v2 report for Department of Defense agency 097 prime award obligations for FY2026, in billions USD, on the registered query snapshot, using the obligations field from /api/v2/agency/097/awards/?fiscal_year=2026?
DoD Unique Prime Contract Recipients, FY2026
How many distinct non-null USAspending recipient_id values will appear in the first official USAspending API registered query snapshot for Department of Defense prime contract obligations, award type codes A-D, fiscal year 2026?
Provisions
Title I — Committee on Agriculture
SNAP benefit, eligibility, State-cost, and accuracy rules, plus selected rural-investment provisions (§§10001–10013 and 10101–10103)
Title I — Committee on Agriculture
SNAP benefit, eligibility, State-cost, and accuracy rules, plus selected rural-investment provisions (§§10001–10013 and 10101–10103)
The close read covered SNAP §§10001–10013 and selected rural-investment §§10101–10103; §§10104–10108 were mapped from their headings but not read at equal depth. Section 10001 fixes household-size ratios, bars market-basket reevaluation before October 1, 2028 or more often than every five years, makes reevaluations cost-neutral, and retains annual CPI-U adjustment. Sections 10002–10003 and 10008 change work-rule ages, exceptions, and waivers. Sections 10006–10010 change Federal and State shares, administrative reimbursement, duplicate-payment controls, and quality control. Section 10101 changes commodity reference prices and authorizes up to 30 million additional base acres; §§10102–10103 provide conservation and trade-promotion funding.
Quoted from the bill ▸
“The Secretary shall not increase the cost of the thrifty food plan based on a reevaluation or update under this paragraph.” … “for fiscal year 2028 and each fiscal year thereafter, 95 percent.”
Countersignable goals
Likely effects — shown regardless of the goals
Benefit formula
The cost-neutral reevaluation rule can hold the Thrifty Food Plan below a counterfactual methodological update even while annual CPI-U indexation continues; it is not a nominal benefit freeze.
Eligibility and access
Wider work-rule coverage, a county unemployment waiver test above 10 percent, fewer discretionary exemptions, and narrower noncitizen eligibility can reduce participation, but a caseload decline does not establish an employment gain.
State fiscal exposure
Beginning in fiscal year 2028, the ordinary State share of allotment costs is 5 percent and rises to 15, 20, or 25 percent at payment-error rates of at least 6, 8, or 10 percent; §10007 separately changes the referenced administrative-reimbursement percentage from 50 to 25 percent.
Agricultural program inputs
The selected rural sections change commodity reference prices and base acreage and provide specified conservation and trade-promotion funds, but statutory funding or acreage authority does not establish producer participation, exports, conservation delivery, or downstream outcomes.
Implementation barriers
State SNAP agencies
States must integrate eligibility and cross-program data, verify county waiver conditions and individual exceptions, issue notices, adjudicate disputes, and budget for a benefit-cost share that can move sharply with measured error rates.
USDA Food and Nutrition Service
FNS must publish and administer the Thrifty Food Plan methodology, operate the National Accuracy Clearinghouse expansion, measure State error rates consistently, and implement a zero-dollar quality-control tolerance without making unlike errors look equivalent.
Applicants and participating households
People subject to work rules, exception tests, household-member exclusions, or shelter-cost changes bear reporting and documentation burdens, and the text does not create a recurring measure that separates successful employment from administrative loss of benefits.
USDA agencies and agricultural participants
USDA must implement multiple commodity and rural-program changes with different allocation rules and timelines, while authorized acres or appropriated dollars may not translate directly into applications, obligations, delivered practices, or market outcomes.
Candidate outcome metrics
USDA FNS monthly national SNAP participation, measured as total participating persons; this is direct but cannot identify which of the title's several eligibility mechanisms caused a change.
USDA FNS National Data Bank total SNAP benefits and average benefit per person, with the publication vintage fixed in advance; no exact series in the current docket was verified for this extraction.
USDA FNS annual State payment-error rates and the resulting count of States in the 5, 15, 20, and 25 percent cost-share tiers; the error-rate series is official, but no exact current-docket series hint was verified.
USDA administrative data for added base acres and obligations under the selected conservation and trade-promotion provisions, reported separately by program and fiscal or crop year. No exact current-docket series was verified, and these inputs do not measure producer income, exports, or conservation outcomes.
No recurring official national series cleanly separates disenrollment for work-rule failure, exception or documentation failure, successful employment, and ordinary churn, so this extraction does not claim an employment-outcome series.
Conditional forecast sketches
P(USDA FNS total participating persons | §§10002–10003, 10008, and 10012 plus State cost sharing in force vs prior rules)
P(USDA FNS total benefits and benefit per person | §10001 cost-neutral reevaluation and §§10004–10005 shelter changes vs prior rules)
P(number of States in the 5, 15, 20, and 25 percent allotment-cost shares | §§10006 and 10010 in force vs absent)
P(added base acres and selected conservation and trade-promotion obligations | §§10101–10103 in force vs prior law), with each program and reporting vintage specified before registration
Title II — Committee on Armed Services
Defense quality-of-life, shipbuilding, missile-defense, munitions, and readiness appropriations (§§20001–20015)
Title II — Committee on Armed Services
Defense quality-of-life, shipbuilding, missile-defense, munitions, and readiness appropriations (§§20001–20015)
Title II supplies fiscal year 2025 budget authority, generally available through September 30, 2029, across military quality of life, shipbuilding, integrated air and missile defense, munitions and industrial-base capacity, low-cost weapons, cyber and business systems, air superiority, nuclear forces, Indo-Pacific capabilities, readiness, border support, oversight, and military construction. Sections 20002–20004 were read closely for this extraction; the other sections were reviewed at heading or selected-text level. The listed dollars are inputs and do not by themselves establish ships delivered, weapons fielded, readiness gained, or service-member outcomes.
Quoted from the bill ▸
$5,400,000,000 for two additional Guided Missile Destroyer (DDG) ships; … $5,600,000,000 for development of space-based and boost phase intercept capabilities;
Countersignable goals
Likely effects — shown regardless of the goals
Multiyear procurement authority
The title makes large, line-item appropriations available through fiscal year 2029, allowing procurement and industrial-base work to proceed outside ordinary annual appropriations, but obligations and contract awards can precede physical delivery by years.
Industrial-base financing
Section 20004 includes grants, purchase commitments, production-capacity investments, and a $500 million credit-program appropriation that may support up to $100 billion in direct-loan and guaranteed principal, shifting execution risk to project selection, subsidy estimates, and borrower demand.
Portfolio competition
Many separately specified weapon, facility, personnel, and technology lines must compete for a finite acquisition workforce and supplier base even though each has dedicated budget authority.
Implementation barriers
Department of Defense acquisition organizations
Program offices must contract, oversee, test, and accept a very large portfolio before funds expire while satisfying the title's planning, reporting, domestic-capacity, and oversight conditions.
Shipyards and defense suppliers
Workforce, dry-dock, component, energetic-material, critical-mineral, and second-source constraints can delay conversion of awards into production, and the bill does not supply a common delivery schedule across the portfolio.
Candidate outcome metrics
USAspending Department of Defense prime-award obligations for the registered fiscal-year observation; this department-wide series is a coarse execution signal and does not isolate Title II or distinguish the supplemental appropriation.
Live forecast 455 →USAspending unique Department of Defense prime-contract recipients for the registered fiscal-year observation, interpreted only as a broad supplier-participation measure because recipient count does not show productive capacity, competition quality, or the distribution of Title II awards.
Live forecast 56k →No single recurring official series converts this mixed portfolio into delivered ships, deployed interceptors, munitions capacity, readiness, or military quality of life without program-specific milestones and definitions.
Conditional forecast sketches
P(Department of Defense prime-award obligations | Title II appropriations available through FY2029 vs no supplemental Title II authority)
P(unique Department of Defense prime-contract recipients | Title II industrial-base grants and procurement vs baseline contracting)
P(program-specific ships, munitions, and missile-defense milestones | Title II funds obligated on schedule vs delayed obligation)
Title III — Committee on Education and Workforce
Federal loan limits, repayment-plan consolidation, Pell targeting, Workforce Pell, and institutional risk sharing
Title III — Committee on Education and Workforce
Federal loan limits, repayment-plan consolidation, Pell targeting, Workforce Pell, and institutional risk sharing
This entry is based on close reads of §§30011, 30021, 30031–30033, and 30041, not every Title III section. The selected provisions end subsidized Direct Stafford loans for new undergraduate periods, end graduate and professional PLUS loans for new periods, impose new annual and lifetime loan limits, consolidate post-July 1, 2026 repayment choices, retarget Pell eligibility, create Workforce Pell for qualifying short programs, and charge institutions a share of cohort non-repayment beginning in award year 2028–2029. The loan, repayment, Pell, and institutional-accountability mechanisms can move in different directions and should not be treated as one uniform expansion or contraction of aid.
Quoted from the bill ▸
for any period of instruction beginning on or after July 1, 2026, a graduate student or professional student shall not be eligible to receive a Federal Direct PLUS Loan under this part. … For the award year beginning on July 1, 2026, and each subsequent award year, the Secretary shall award grants (to be known as Workforce Pell Grants )
Countersignable goals
Likely effects — shown regardless of the goals
Federal credit limits
For affected new periods beginning July 1, 2026, subsidized undergraduate lending and graduate or professional PLUS lending end, annual limits depend on program median cost, and new aggregate caps can create financing gaps, private-credit substitution, price pressure, or reduced enrollment.
Repayment transition
New borrowers receive a standard plan with a 10-, 15-, 20-, or 25-year term based on balance or the income-based Repayment Assistance Plan; RAP has a minimum payment, unpaid-interest protection, a principal match, and cancellation after 360 qualifying payments, so effects differ across borrowers.
Pell restriction and expansion
Pell eligibility restrictions can reduce conventional awards while Workforce Pell can add awards for 150-to-under-600-clock-hour, 8-to-under-15-week programs that satisfy Governor and Secretary findings, including completion, placement, and value tests.
Institutional risk sharing
Beginning with specified cohorts, an institution owes a reimbursement percentage multiplied by its cohort non-repayment balance, creating incentives to change prices, programs, admissions, or student support and a risk of selecting away from borrowers expected to repay less.
Implementation barriers
Department of Education
The Department must transition accounts, implement new plans and limits, calculate median cost, earnings, price, and cohort balances, link records, attribute consolidation loans, collect reimbursements, and publish rules on tight statutory timelines.
Institutions and States
Schools need cohort-level accounting and liquidity for reimbursements, while States must vet workforce programs and institutions may react through closures, repricing, or enrollment selection that the text does not directly constrain.
Students and servicers
Borrowers must navigate transition rules, grandfathered periods, new borrowing caps, and repayment choices, and the same rule can lower payments for one borrower while lengthening or raising them for another.
Candidate outcome metrics
Federal Student Aid Direct Loan disbursement borrowers and dollars by subsidized, unsubsidized, Grad PLUS, and Parent PLUS loan type, with new and grandfathered cohorts separated; no exact current-docket series hint was verified.
Federal Student Aid portfolio balances by repayment plan and status, including RAP enrollment, payments, delinquency, default, interest assistance, principal matches, and cancellation when those fields become consistently public; no exact current-docket series hint was verified.
Department of Education Pell recipients and outlays, reported separately for conventional and Workforce Pell if the new program receives a stable public field; no exact current-docket series hint was verified.
Department of Education annual institutional reimbursement assessments and receipts, paired with the published completion, earnings, price, and non-repayment inputs for each cohort; these are bill-created outputs without an established recurring series.
Conditional forecast sketches
P(Direct Loan borrowers and disbursement dollars by loan type | §30011 limits vs prior law)
P(repayment-plan enrollment, delinquency, default, and balances | §30021 transition and RAP vs the prior plan menu)
P(Pell recipients, outlays, and qualifying short-program participation | §§30031–30033 vs prior law)
P(program closures, prices, completion, and institutional reimbursements | §30041 risk sharing in force vs absent)
Title IV — Energy and Commerce · Subtitles A–C
Energy and environmental rescissions, rule repeals, permitting, spectrum, and Federal AI modernization
Title IV — Energy and Commerce · Subtitles A–C
Energy and environmental rescissions, rule repeals, permitting, spectrum, and Federal AI modernization
This is a selected-section summary rather than a full read of Title IV's energy, environment, and communications subtitles. The block rescinds unobligated balances from specified Inflation Reduction Act programs, creates or changes natural-gas authorization and permitting mechanisms, funds specified Department of Energy activities, repeals numerous environmental funding authorities, nullifies named EPA vehicle-emissions and NHTSA fuel-economy rules, directs spectrum identification and auctions, and funds a Federal artificial-intelligence and information-technology modernization initiative. It is split from Subtitle D health because the committee title is not a coherent policy unit.
Quoted from the bill ▸
The final rules issued by the Environmental Protection Agency relating to Revised 2023 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards (86 Fed. Reg. 74434 (December 30, 2021)) and Multi-Pollutant Emissions Standards for Model Years 2027 and Later Light-Duty and Medium-Duty Vehicles (89 Fed. Reg. 27842 (April 18, 2024)) shall have no force or effect.
Countersignable goals
Likely effects — shown regardless of the goals
Rescission and repeal
The amount actually withdrawn depends on the unobligated balance when the provision operates, while repeal of funding authority can stop future awards without reversing every already-obligated project.
Regulatory baseline change
The named EPA and NHTSA rules would cease to govern the covered model years, changing manufacturer compliance obligations and likely vehicle technology choices, but the text supplies no emissions, fuel-use, or vehicle-price target.
New administrative throughput
Permitting, spectrum, and Federal IT provisions create new fees, deadlines, auctions, or funded activity, but authorizations and budget authority are not the same as completed infrastructure, spectrum deployment, or productivity gains.
Implementation barriers
Energy, environmental, transportation, and communications agencies
Agencies must identify unobligated balances, close or revise programs, reconcile named-rule repeals with remaining law, run permitting and spectrum processes, and define auditable IT deliverables across unrelated statutes.
Regulated firms and grant recipients
Firms and recipients face transition questions around already-obligated awards, model-year planning, construction timing, supply contracts, and permits whose treatment is not summarized by a single effective date.
Candidate outcome metrics
Agency and USAspending records for unobligated balances rescinded, remaining obligations, spectrum auction receipts, and program-specific modernization awards, each frozen to a named account and reporting date; no exact current-docket series hint was verified.
EPA vehicle-emissions compliance data, NHTSA fleet fuel-economy data, and EIA energy production or generation measures could track downstream changes, but none cleanly attributes movement to this mixed block and no exact current-docket series hint was verified.
Conditional forecast sketches
P(program-specific obligations and unobligated balances | Title IV rescissions and repeals vs the prior funding authorities)
P(vehicle fleet emissions and fuel economy | §§42201 and 42301 rule repeals vs the named rules remaining in force)
P(spectrum auction receipts and licensed spectrum | §43101 deadlines and authority vs baseline authority)
Title IV — Energy and Commerce · Subtitle D — Health
Medicaid and Exchange verification, financing constraints, community engagement, cost sharing, and selected health-program changes
Title IV — Energy and Commerce · Subtitle D — Health
Medicaid and Exchange verification, financing constraints, community engagement, cost sharing, and selected health-program changes
The close read covered §§44108, 44111, 44122, 44126, 44132–44133, 44141–44142, and 44201–44202; other Subtitle D sections were mapped but not read at equal depth. The reviewed provisions require six-month redeterminations for specified adults, constrain selected State financing and directed payments, require community engagement by December 31, 2026, mandate cost sharing for specified above-poverty expansion adults from October 1, 2028, tighten Exchange enrollment and income verification, and fund cost-sharing reductions subject to the stated coverage limitation.
Quoted from the bill ▸
“a State shall make such a redetermination once every 6 months” … “The individual works not less than 80 hours.” … “in no case may a deduction, cost sharing, or similar charge imposed under the State plan with respect to an item or service furnished to a specified individual exceed $35.”
Countersignable goals
Likely effects — shown regardless of the goals
Renewal and verification
Six-month redetermination and added verification can reduce ineligible enrollment and payments, but also create procedural coverage loss among eligible people.
State and provider financing
FMAP, provider-tax, directed-payment, and demonstration-neutrality rules can shift pressure to State budgets, providers, benefits, or enrollment administration; §44133 caps specified directed-payment rates at 100 percent of Medicare in expansion States and 110 percent elsewhere.
Community-engagement condition
Qualifying activity generally totals 80 hours per month; States should verify ex parte using reliable information such as payroll data and otherwise provide notice and a 30-day cure before denial or disenrollment.
Cost sharing
From October 1, 2028, specified above-poverty expansion adults face positive charges, subject to excluded services, a $35 item-or-service cap, and a 5-percent-of-family-income aggregate cap; providers may condition service on payment.
Implementation barriers
State Medicaid agencies
States need data matching, exception and medical-frailty determinations, notices, fair hearings, six-month renewals, provider-tax and payment crosswalks, and cost-sharing systems.
CMS and Exchanges
Federal administrators must issue guidance, oversee State financing, implement the 75-percent special-enrollment-period verification floor, and keep administrative measures comparable across States and years.
Beneficiaries and providers
People and providers bear documentation, appeal, payment, and coverage-continuity burdens that gross enrollment or outlay totals do not capture.
Candidate outcome metrics
CMS monthly Medicaid and CHIP enrollment, ideally with a consistently defined adult expansion subgroup and a fixed reporting vintage; no exact current-docket series hint was verified.
CMS-64 and Federal budget data for Medicaid outlays and Federal share, with provider-tax and directed-payment timing identified where possible; no exact current-docket series hint was verified.
CMS renewal and procedural-disposition measures, with community-engagement notices, cures, denials, and exemption failures separated if published. No recurring national field currently isolates these outcomes.
Share of special-enrollment-period enrollees verified before enrollment for plan years beginning in 2026, tested against the statutory minimum of 75 percent; no exact recurring public series was verified.
Conditional forecast sketches
P(adult and total Medicaid enrollment and procedural disenrollment | six-month renewals and community engagement in force vs delayed or absent)
P(Federal Medicaid outlays | FMAP, provider-tax, and directed-payment restrictions vs prior financing rules)
P(community-engagement notices, cures, and denials | §44141 implemented on time vs delayed)
P(special-enrollment-period verification share | §44201 in force vs prior Exchange rules)
Title V — Committee on Financial Services
Audit-oversight transfer, regulator-funding limits, and fund rescissions (§§50001–50005)
Title V — Committee on Financial Services
Audit-oversight transfer, regulator-funding limits, and fund rescissions (§§50001–50005)
All five sections of this small title were read. Section 50001 rescinds the unobligated balance of the Green and Resilient Retrofit Program. Section 50002 transfers most Public Company Accounting Oversight Board duties, pending matters, and property to the Securities and Exchange Commission on an SEC-set date no later than one year after enactment, while preserving existing standards until changed. Sections 50003–50005 lower or cap specified CFPB and financial-research funding and balances and direct excess amounts to the Treasury.
Quoted from the bill ▸
the duties and powers of the Board in effect as of the day before the transfer date, other than those described in section 107 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 ( 15 U.S.C. 7217 ), shall be transferred to the Commission;
Countersignable goals
Likely effects — shown regardless of the goals
Institutional transfer
The SEC becomes responsible for transferred PCAOB functions, pending proceedings, intellectual property, and transition work, while employee transfer is permitted rather than guaranteed.
Funding constraint
The CFPB's referenced transfer cap changes from 12 percent to 5 percent, specified unobligated balances are capped, and excess Civil Penalty Fund and Financial Research Fund amounts move to the Treasury.
Implementation barriers
Securities and Exchange Commission
The SEC must set and execute the transfer within one year without interrupting inspections, standards, or pending enforcement, even though the title does not require every PCAOB employee to transfer.
CFPB and financial-research administrators
The fiscal effect depends on future expenses and unobligated or excess balances that the bill does not quantify, and the agencies must distinguish retained operating needs from amounts remitted to Treasury.
Title VI — Committee on Homeland Security
Border barriers, CBP capacity, State reimbursement, and security grants (§§60001–60006)
Title VI — Committee on Homeland Security
Border barriers, CBP capacity, State reimbursement, and security grants (§§60001–60006)
All six sections were read. The title makes fiscal year 2025 appropriations generally available through September 30, 2029 for border barriers, roads, technology and facilities; CBP personnel, bonuses, training and vehicles; inspection, surveillance, biometric, air and marine, and drug-interdiction technology; State border-security reimbursement; presidential-residence protection; and designated State and local security grants. The text provides large budget inputs but generally does not state required barrier miles, net staffing gains, or interdiction outcomes.
Quoted from the bill ▸
$46,500,000,000 for necessary expenses relating to the following: (A) Construction, installation, or improvement of primary, waterborne, and secondary barriers.
Countersignable goals
Likely effects — shown regardless of the goals
Capital and staffing authority
DHS and CBP receive multiyear budget authority for construction, hiring, training, vehicles, and technology, but obligation, completion, staffing, and operational-effect dates can differ substantially.
Intergovernmental reimbursement
The $12 billion State reimbursement program requires applications, evidence of eligible post-January 21, 2021 costs, and controls against duplicate reimbursement, shifting administrative work to both States and DHS.
Implementation barriers
Department of Homeland Security and Customs and Border Protection
The agencies must absorb unusually large construction, hiring, training, procurement, and grant workloads before funds expire even though the title supplies few common delivery milestones.
States and vendors
States must substantiate eligible costs and avoid duplication, while construction, surveillance, vehicle, and facility vendors face testing, acceptance, siting, workforce, and supply constraints.
Candidate outcome metrics
DHS financial reports and USAspending obligations and outlays for the specific Title VI accounts, separated from preexisting border funding and frozen after a defined reporting lag; no exact current-docket series hint was verified.
CBP staffing, completed barrier miles, inspection throughput, seizures, and air or marine mission data require several agency publications with changing definitions, and no single recurring official series resolves the title's combined outcome.
Conditional forecast sketches
P(Title VI obligations and outlays | the supplemental appropriations are available through FY2029 vs absent)
P(CBP net staffing and completed barrier miles | procurement and hiring funds execute on schedule vs delayed)
P(approved State reimbursement dollars | §60004 eligibility and non-duplication rules vs no reimbursement program)
Title VII — Committee on the Judiciary
Immigration fees, adjudication, detention, enforcement, removal, and other judiciary provisions
Title VII — Committee on the Judiciary
Immigration fees, adjudication, detention, enforcement, removal, and other judiciary provisions
The close read covered §§70002–70003, 70008, 70100–70105, 70110, 70115, and 70121; the other fee and regulatory sections were mapped but not read at equal depth. The reviewed provisions impose nonwaivable asylum and initial employment-authorization-document fees, create a potentially reimbursable visa-integrity fee, fund immigration courts, detention, a statutory minimum of 10,000 ICE hires over fiscal years 2025–2029, transportation and removal, section 287(g) activity, unaccompanied-child custody, and drug-enforcement activity.
Quoted from the bill ▸
“in any event not less than $1,000” and “A fee imposed under this section shall not be waived or reduced.” … “$45,000,000,000 to remain available until September 30, 2029”
Countersignable goals
Likely effects — shown regardless of the goals
Applicant fees
The fiscal year 2025 asylum fee is at least $1,000 and the initial employment-authorization fee is at least $550, with later CPI-U indexing and no waiver; collections can fund administration or flow to Treasury, while nonwaivability can reduce or delay filings among people unable to pay.
Enforcement capacity
EOIR, ICE, DHS, DOJ, and HHS receive multiyear funds for judges, staff, detention, transportation, removal, technology, facilities, prosecution, and child-related functions, but budget authority is not proof of hires, beds, completed cases, or removals.
Throughput dependencies
More detention and enforcement capacity can move cases and removals only if recruiting, training, court support, travel documents, receiving-country cooperation, custody standards, and litigation permit the intended throughput.
Implementation barriers
DHS, DOJ, HHS, and immigration courts
Agencies must recruit and train thousands of staff, procure and site capacity, integrate case systems, coordinate courts and custody, collect fees, and manage removal logistics before the appropriations expire.
Applicants, children, sponsors, and legal-service providers
Nonwaivable fees, repeated applications, screening, detention, and expedited processes create liquidity, documentation, representation, and due-process burdens whose quality is not captured by a throughput count.
State and local governments
Participating jurisdictions can receive funding, while other jurisdictions face different coordination or restriction effects, and the title does not reduce these divergent positions to one implementation model.
Evaluators
The text requires no stable recurring public performance series spanning fees, court staffing, detention, removals, and unaccompanied-child custody.
Candidate outcome metrics
EOIR judge and support-staff hiring, case completions, and pending caseload, using a fixed case-definition and reporting vintage; no exact current-docket series hint was verified.
ICE net hires, detention population or bed use, and removals, reported separately because each has a different denominator and lag; no exact current-docket series hint was verified.
USCIS and EOIR asylum and initial employment-authorization application counts and associated fee receipts, with filing office, rejected-filing, and pending-case definitions fixed. The new fees themselves may not be waived or reduced, and no exact current-docket series hint was verified.
Office of Refugee Resettlement counts of children in custody, custody duration, releases, transport, and returns only where definitions remain stable; the bill establishes funding but no recurring publication requirement, and no exact current-docket series hint was verified.
Conditional forecast sketches
P(asylum and initial EAD applications and fee receipts | §§70002–70003 nonwaivable fees in force vs no new fee)
P(EOIR hires, case completions, and pending cases | §70100 funds deployed vs baseline capacity)
P(ICE hires, detained population, and removals | §§70101–70105 execute on schedule vs delayed)
P(unaccompanied-child custody duration, releases, and returns | §§70115–70119 vs prior resources), subject to verifying a stable public series
Title VIII — Committee on Natural Resources
Federal leasing, mineral and timber sales, renewable-energy fees, and water infrastructure
Title VIII — Committee on Natural Resources
Federal leasing, mineral and timber sales, renewable-energy fees, and water infrastructure
This title was mapped in full but read selectively at §§80101, 80121, 80141, 80171, 80181, 80203–80204, and 80308–80309. The selected sections require recurring onshore, Alaska, coal, Gulf, and Cook Inlet lease offerings; revise Federal wind and solar acreage rents and capacity fees; appropriate money for existing water-storage and conveyance capacity; and direct Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management timber-sale volumes above recent averages. Other Title VIII sections were not reviewed closely enough to support section-level claims here.
Quoted from the bill ▸
Notwithstanding the 2024–2029 National Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Leasing Program, the Secretary shall hold not fewer than 30 lease sales in the Gulf of America during the 15-year period beginning on the date of the enactment of this section.
Countersignable goals
Likely effects — shown regardless of the goals
Mandatory offerings
The selected provisions create concrete sale counts, acreage requirements, and deadlines, but acres or parcels offered and timber volume sold are not the same as bids, extraction, generation, or harvest.
Infrastructure and fee authority
Reclamation receives nonreimbursable, no-match construction funds and Interior changes wind and solar charges, but the text does not state a common added-capacity target or a guaranteed revenue path.
Implementation barriers
Interior and Agriculture agencies
Agencies face overlapping leasing, land-use-plan, environmental-review, permitting, forest-plan, and fixed-deadline duties, while bidder demand can still limit awards, receipts, extraction, and harvest.
Bureau of Reclamation and project sponsors
Water projects require selection, design, permitting, and construction even though the title supplies no project list or single acre-foot or conveyance-capacity target.
Candidate outcome metrics
BLM, BOEM, and Forest Service official sale results for sales held, parcels or acres offered and sold, bonus bids, and timber volume sold, with agency and geography fixed; no exact current-docket series hint was verified.
ONRR production and royalty receipts plus project-specific Reclamation storage or conveyance capacity can measure downstream delivery, but these require separate series and no exact current-docket hint was verified.
Conditional forecast sketches
P(Federal lease sales, acres offered, and acres receiving bids | Title VIII sale mandates vs prior schedules)
P(Federal production and royalty receipts | mandated offerings produce leases and development vs offerings draw no additional bids)
P(completed storage and conveyance capacity | §§80203–80204 projects selected and built vs delayed selection or construction)
Title IX — Committee on Oversight and Government Reform
Federal retirement, at-will election, MSPB fees, and FEHB eligibility controls (§§90001–90004)
Title IX — Committee on Oversight and Government Reform
Federal retirement, at-will election, MSPB fees, and FEHB eligibility controls (§§90001–90004)
All four sections were read. Section 90001 narrows Federal Employees Retirement System annuity-supplement eligibility beginning January 1, 2028 while grandfathering prior entitlement. Section 90002 lets newly appointed covered employees irrevocably elect at-will status; employees who do not elect pay five additional FERS contribution percentage points. Section 90003 creates a refundable-if-prevailing Merit Systems Protection Board filing fee with specified exceptions. Section 90004 requires Federal Employees Health Benefits family-eligibility verification, a five-year comprehensive audit, removal or disenrollment procedures, records retention, Inspector General referrals, and oversight funding.
Quoted from the bill ▸
may be subject to an adverse action up to and including removal, without notice or right to appeal, by the head of the agency at which the individual is employed for good cause, bad cause, or no cause at all.
Countersignable goals
Likely effects — shown regardless of the goals
Irrevocable employment election
Electing at-will status changes removal and appeal protections, while declining it raises the employee contribution rate by five percentage points; the title does not state how either branch will affect recruitment or retention.
Verification and filing controls
OPM must build family-eligibility verification, audit, disenrollment, record-retention, and referral processes, while MSPB must collect and potentially refund a filing fee.
Implementation barriers
Federal employing agencies
Agencies must explain and administer a consequential irrevocable choice while preserving the prohibited-personnel-practice and other remedies that the text leaves in place.
Office of Personnel Management and MSPB
OPM must verify family status at scale, protect retained records, adjudicate eligibility, and coordinate referrals, while MSPB must administer fees and refunds without obscuring access effects.
Title X — Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure
Coast Guard and air-traffic investment, vehicle fees, rescissions, and related infrastructure (§§100001–100008)
Title X — Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure
Coast Guard and air-traffic investment, vehicle fees, rescissions, and related infrastructure (§§100001–100008)
All eight sections were read. The title funds Coast Guard aircraft, cutters and icebreakers, facilities, depot work, and maritime awareness through fiscal year 2029; imposes annual $250 electric-vehicle and $100 hybrid-vehicle registration fees, adjusted for inflation and scheduled to end October 1, 2035; funds public motor-carrier authorization data; rescinds specified transportation and buildings balances; funds air-traffic-control infrastructure and controller recruitment and training; and funds Kennedy Center capital and security work. The appropriations establish inputs rather than guaranteed asset delivery.
Quoted from the bill ▸
$4,978,000,000 for Arctic Security Cutters and domestic icebreakers and spare parts and program management for such Cutters and icebreakers;
Countersignable goals
Likely effects — shown regardless of the goals
Procurement and modernization
Coast Guard and FAA receive multiyear budget authority, but cutters, aircraft, facilities, systems, and trained controllers can be delivered well after obligations and remain subject to acquisition and workforce capacity.
State-collected vehicle fee
State motor-vehicle agencies must classify vehicles, collect the annual fees, and remit amounts monthly to the Highway Trust Fund, and a noncompliant State can face withholding equal to 125 percent of the required remittance.
Implementation barriers
Coast Guard and Federal Aviation Administration
Shipyard, acquisition, construction, systems-integration, controller-hiring, and training constraints can delay delivery before the fiscal year 2029 funding deadline.
State motor-vehicle agencies
States must identify covered vehicles, modify registration systems, collect and remit fees, and coordinate Federal rules despite variation in State vehicle records and renewal calendars.
Candidate outcome metrics
Coast Guard acquisition reports for cutters, aircraft, and facilities plus FAA controller staffing and modernization milestones, kept as separate measures because obligations do not equal accepted assets or certified staff; no exact current-docket series hint was verified.
State electric- and hybrid-vehicle registrations, fees collected, and monthly Highway Trust Fund remittances, with State coverage and vehicle classification fixed; no standardized current-docket series hint was verified.
Conditional forecast sketches
P(Coast Guard accepted assets and FAA controller staffing | Title X appropriations execute on schedule vs delayed execution)
P(State electric- and hybrid-vehicle fee collections and Highway Trust Fund remittances | §§100003–100004 in force vs absent)
Title XI — Committee on Ways and Means · Subtitles A–B
Individual and family tax extensions, temporary deductions, and selected business-investment provisions
Title XI — Committee on Ways and Means · Subtitles A–B
Individual and family tax extensions, temporary deductions, and selected business-investment provisions
The close read covered selected §§110001–110004, 110101–110104, and 111001–111004, not every section in Subtitles A–B. The reviewed provisions extend post-2017 rates and the standard deduction, set the child credit at $2,500 for the temporary window and $2,000 thereafter, create temporary deductions for defined tips, the Fair Labor Standards Act overtime premium, seniors, and qualifying domestically assembled vehicle-loan interest, and temporarily restore 100-percent bonus depreciation and domestic research-and-experimentation expensing. “No tax” is a heading, not complete exclusion: the deductions are defined and limited and do not remove payroll taxes.
Quoted from the bill ▸
There shall be allowed as a deduction an amount equal to the qualified tips received during the taxable year that are included on statements furnished to the individual pursuant to section 6041(d)(3), 6041A(e)(3), 6050W(f)(2), 6051(a)(18), or reported by the taxpayer on Form 4137 (or successor). … There shall be allowed as a deduction an amount equal to the qualified overtime compensation received during the taxable year.
Countersignable goals
Likely effects — shown regardless of the goals
Liability and cliffs
Permanent extensions and temporary 2025–2028 or 2029 windows lower qualifying liabilities relative to scheduled law but create several future cliffs.
Classification and reporting
Tip, overtime, senior, and vehicle-interest rules require new substantiation and information reporting and can create boundary or reclassification incentives despite anti-abuse authority.
Investment timing
Full depreciation and temporary domestic research expensing can pull qualifying activity into the statutory windows, but deduction claims do not establish additional real investment.
Implementation barriers
Internal Revenue Service and Treasury
The agencies must revise forms, withholding, occupation lists, reporting, anti-reclassification, and transition guidance across different dates and definitions.
Employers, lenders, businesses, and taxpayers
Affected parties must identify qualified compensation, domestic vehicle assembly, qualifying property, and research costs and prepare for sunsets.
Evaluators
The bill creates information-return fields but does not require timely public line-item series or a distributional counterfactual.
Candidate outcome metrics
IRS Statistics of Income return counts and dollars for the child credit and the new tip, overtime, senior, and vehicle-interest deductions if separately published, with tax year and first-release vintage fixed; no exact current-docket series hint was verified.
Treasury individual-income-tax receipts are a broad fiscal outcome of the individual provisions but are dominated by income growth, withholding, payment timing, and unrelated tax changes; no exact attributable series was verified.
Bureau of Economic Analysis private nonresidential fixed-investment and research-and-development measures, paired with IRS or Treasury corporate receipts, can track broad outcomes but cannot isolate §§111001–111004 without a counterfactual.
No single recurring official series measures the provisions' combined incidence by income, occupation, family structure, geography, and business type, so no distributional series is claimed.
Conditional forecast sketches
P(qualifying credit and deduction claim counts and dollars | selected §§110001–110104 rules in force vs scheduled-law expirations)
P(individual-income-tax receipts | selected individual rules vs scheduled law)
P(private investment, research and development, and corporate receipts | §§111001–111004 vs no temporary expensing extensions)
Title XI — Committee on Ways and Means · Subtitles C–D
Selected energy-credit, eligibility, tax-administration, improper-payment, and debt-limit provisions
Title XI — Committee on Ways and Means · Subtitles C–D
Selected energy-credit, eligibility, tax-administration, improper-payment, and debt-limit provisions
The close read covered selected §§112001–112002, 112014, 112018, 112104, 112204–112208, and 113001, not every Subtitle C offset. The reviewed provisions end the used clean-vehicle credit after 2025 and generally end the new clean-vehicle credit after 2026, phase out or restrict selected manufacturing credits, restructure the State and local tax deduction cap, impose a 3.5-percent remittance-transfer excise tax with a citizen-or-national pathway, require Medicare improper-payment tools and reports, terminate Direct File, change earned-income-tax-credit administration and disclosure penalties, and add $4 trillion to the debt limit.
Quoted from the bill ▸
“Section 25E(g) is amended by striking December 31, 2032 and inserting December 31, 2025.” … “the total dollar amount of improper payments recouped in the most recent year for which data is available” … “is increased by $4,000,000,000,000.”
Countersignable goals
Likely effects — shown regardless of the goals
Credit timing
Early termination and placed-in-service or production deadlines can pull purchases and projects forward, followed by fewer subsidized transactions at the margin; falling claims are mechanical, but deployment effects are not.
Administration and recoupment
New returns, certifications, artificial-intelligence tools, recoupment, earned-income-tax-credit certificates, and penalties increase verification and compliance work; §112204 expressly requires an annual report beginning in 2029.
Debt ceiling
Section 113001 raises legal borrowing capacity but authorizes no spending and sets no debt target or path.
Implementation barriers
IRS, Treasury, CMS, and affected taxpayers or providers
Administrators and regulated parties must implement interacting definitions, reporting, verification, supply-chain, credit-transition, remittance, and recoupment rules on different dates.
Clean-energy firms and buyers
Firms and buyers face eligibility and timing boundaries, and counts alone cannot separate already-planned activity from activity induced by a credit.
Department of the Treasury
Treasury must manage cash and debt issuance against obligations, while approach to either the old or new ceiling depends on fiscal flows outside §113001.
Candidate outcome metrics
IRS return counts and credit dollars for §§25E, 30D, and selected §§45X, 45Y, and 48E claims by tax year if separately published; no exact current-docket series was verified.
Official vehicle sales by eligibility-relevant class and Energy Information Administration capacity additions or generation by source can track downstream changes, but no one series resolves the mixed deadlines and none was verified as an exact registry match.
The annual §1899D report must state improper-payment dollars recouped and explain failure to reduce the improper-payment rate by 50 percent versus the prior year; this is bill-created and has no established recurring series hint.
Treasury's Monthly Statement of the Public Debt statutory debt-limit table, paired with the legal ceiling and a fixed observation-date convention; no exact current-docket series hint was verified. Debt to the Penny is a nearby total-public-debt measure, not the statutory-limit numerator.
Conditional forecast sketches
P(clean-credit claims and qualifying vehicle sales | §§112001–112014 deadlines vs the prior credit schedule)
P(Medicare improper-payment dollars recouped and rate reduction | §112204 tools implemented vs delayed)
P(debt subject to limit and remaining headroom on a fixed date | §113001 adds $4 trillion vs the prior ceiling)