Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US CPS production occupations employment, August 2026
What will BLS first report in CPS Employment Situation Table A-19 for August 2026 employed people age 16 and over in Production occupations, not seasonally adjusted, in millions?
current forecast · 80% CI8M
7.7M8M8.2M
history:July 2026 CPS production occupations employment: 8.1MJune 2026 CPS production occupations employment: 7.8MAugust 2025 CPS production occupations employment: 7.5MJuly 2025 CPS production occupations employment: 7.7MAugust 2024 CPS production occupations employment: 7.8M
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-08-13T17:02:02Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- August 13, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.production.august_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- July 2026 level persistence
- recent July-to-August NSA seasonal decline
- CPS occupation subgroup volatility
- July 2026 rebound from June
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation, CPS Table A-19
- expected
- September 10, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first value published for August 2026 in BLS CPS Employment Situation Table A-19, row 'Production occupations,' employed persons by occupation, not seasonally adjusted, reported in thousands. Multiply the published thousands value by 0.001 and report millions to three decimals. Preserve the first print and ignore later revisions or corrections unless the registered target is amended before release.
- Data point
- bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.production.august_2026.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: fred.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: fred.csvhidden
▸ recorded source check: fred.release_tablehidden
▸ recorded source check: official.calendarhidden
▸ recorded source check: model.candidateshidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.