Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US DoD prime award obligations FY2026
What will USAspending API v2 report for Department of Defense agency 097 prime award obligations for FY2026, in billions USD, on the registered query snapshot, using the obligations field from /api/v2/agency/097/awards/?fiscal_year=2026?
current forecast · 80% CI455
380455530
history:FY2026 current USAspending agency 097 awards obligations fetched this run: 245.1FY2024 DoD top-six subagency obligations from fetched public USAspending API tutorial proxy, summed: 427.5FY2026 current USAspending agency 097 awards transaction count, millions: 2.2
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-08-11T18:17:53Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- August 11, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- usaspending.dod.prime_award_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot
Key drivers
- Current FY2026 DoD award obligations already 245.1B
- DoD contract and IDV publication lag affects snapshot completeness
- FY2024 top-six DoD subagency proxy implies high annual scale
- Registered snapshot occurs after FY2026 close
- Thin complete-history access keeps interval wide
Resolution
- source
- USAspending API v2, agency 097 awards
- expected
- October 22, 2026
- rule
- Resolve from USAspending API v2 agency 097 awards endpoint for fiscal_year=2026, field obligations, transformed by multiplying by 1e-9 to billions USD. Use the registered query snapshot policy for the first resolving snapshot in the Thesis expectedReleaseWindow 2026-10-15 through 2026-10-22; the lab-committed outer bound is 2026-10-22. Round to the nearest 0.1 billion USD. Later API changes after the registered snapshot are irrelevant.
- Data point
- usaspending.dod.prime_award_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: usaspending.awardshidden
▸ recorded source check: usaspending.agency_overviewhidden
▸ recorded source check: usaspending.docshidden
▸ recorded source check: usaspending.cookbook_subagency_fy2024hidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.