Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US aircraft manufacturing establishments, Q1 2026
What will BLS QCEW first-print private ownership, national NAICS 336411 Aircraft manufacturing quarterly establishments be for 2026 Q1?
current forecast · 80% CI395
386395404
history:2025 Q1 BLS QCEW private NAICS 336411 qtrly_estabs reference value used: 3882025 Q2 BLS QCEW private NAICS 336411 qtrly_estabs reference value used: 3902025 Q3 BLS QCEW private NAICS 336411 qtrly_estabs reference value used: 3912025 Q4 BLS QCEW private NAICS 336411 qtrly_estabs nowcast anchor: 393
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-23T03:14:11Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 23, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- bls.qcew.aircraft_manufacturing.establishments.2026_q1.first_print
Key drivers
- QCEW establishment counts in this detailed aircraft industry move slowly quarter to quarter
- broader private manufacturing establishments rose through 2025
- BLS industry productivity employment for NAICS 336411 was nearly flat from 2024 to 2025
- Census CBP 2023 establishments anchor the same NAICS industry at a lower annual employer-establishment concept
Resolution
- source
- QCEW NAICS-Based Quarterly CSV Files, 2026 quarterly by industry, private ownership, NAICS 336411 Aircraft manufacturing
- expected
- August 28, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first BLS QCEW NAICS-based quarterly CSV print for 2026 Q1, area_fips=US000, own_code=5 private, industry_code=336411 Aircraft manufacturing, size_code=0, field qtrly_estabs, in count units. Use the value as first published for the 2026 Q1 full data update; do not substitute later revisions or mirrors.
- Data point
- bls.qcew.aircraft_manufacturing.establishments.2026_q1.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.