Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US real average hourly earnings MoM, August 2026
What will the BLS first print for seasonally adjusted real average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, over-the-month percent change, be for August 2026?
current forecast · 80% CI-0.1%
-0.6%-0.1%0.4%
history:June 2026 real average hourly earnings MoM, latest BLS Table A-1: 0.8%May 2026 real average hourly earnings MoM, latest BLS Table A-1: -0.2%April 2026 real average hourly earnings MoM, latest BLS Table A-1: -0.5%July 2026 nominal average hourly earnings, BLS Employment Situation: 37.62%July 2026 unemployment rate, BLS Employment Situation: 4.1%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-08-11T13:08:57Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- August 11, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-08.first_print
Key drivers
- Nominal average hourly earnings growth slowed to near flat in July
- August CPI is likely to absorb most nominal wage growth
- June real-earnings jump was CPI-deflation driven and unlikely to persist
- Recent real hourly earnings changes have high month-to-month CPI noise
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Real Earnings Table A-1
- expected
- September 11, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first BLS Real Earnings Table A-1 print for August 2026, row 'Real average hourly earnings' under 'OVER-THE-MONTH PERCENT CHANGE' for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, seasonally adjusted. Use the value as published in percent, normally to one decimal place, on the scheduled September 11, 2026 release; ignore later revisions.
- Data point
- bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-08.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.