Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US revolving consumer credit annual rate, July 2026
Federal Reserve G.19 Percent Change of Total Revolving Consumer Credit (REVOLSLAR), seasonally adjusted annual rate, July 2026 first print
current forecast · 80% CI+3.5%
-3.5%+3.5%+10.5%
history:May 2026 REVOLSLAR latest official/FRED mirror: -4.7%Apr 2026 REVOLSLAR: +10.4%Mar 2026 REVOLSLAR: +9.7%2025 average in Fed G.19 table: +3.1%2026 Q1 in Fed G.19 table: +4.1%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-31T15:14:57Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 31, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- fed.g19.consumer_credit_revolving_annual_rate.2026_07.first_print
Key drivers
- recent monthly volatility after strong March-April and weak May
- 2025-2026 revolving growth running slower than 2022-2023 rebound
- high credit card APRs restrain revolving balance growth
- July first print is two monthly observations beyond the latest official May value
Resolution
- source
- ALFRED/FRED first vintage for Federal Reserve G.19 REVOLSLAR
- expected
- September 8, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first-published July 2026 value for REVOLSLAR, Percent Change of Total Revolving Consumer Credit, from the Federal Reserve G.19 Consumer Credit table 'Consumer Credit Outstanding, seasonally adjusted, percent change annual rate,' as captured by the first available ALFRED/FRED vintage for source series REVOLSLAR. Use the first print released on September 8, 2026, within the ledger's expected release window of 2026-09-03 through 2026-09-11, with no later revisions; if the Board table shows one decimal but ALFRED/FRED first vintage exposes hundredths for REVOLSLAR, use that first-vintage value.
- Data point
- fed.g19.consumer_credit_revolving_annual_rate.2026_07.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: fred.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: fred.historyhidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.